Providing an Early Warning Protocol for Earth Dam Failures (Case Study: Shiadeh Earth Dam)

Anisheh, Seyed Razi; Sharifipour, Mohammad; Azari, Arash

doi:10.61882/NMCE.2503.1084

Providing an Early Warning Protocol for Earth Dam Failures (Case Study: Shiadeh Earth Dam)

Document Type : Research

Authors

Seyed Razi Anisheh ¹

Mohammad Sharifipour ²

Arash Azari ³

¹ PhD student, Civil Engineering Department, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.

² Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.

³ Associate Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.

10.61882/NMCE.2503.1084

Abstract

Early Warning (EW) is commonly understood as the forecasting of a potentially catastrophic event. The effective use of data for EW plays a vital role in failure management, encompassing tasks like vulnerability mapping, forecasting, warning systems, prevention, planning, and the execution of actions. This study introduces an Early Warning Protocol (EWP) to tackle the potential failure of the Shiadeh Earth Dam in Iran. The dam was commissioned in 1999 and, in 2004, experienced a landslide at the downstream left abutment and the downstream slope. All installed monitoring instruments failed, meaning no deformation data has been recorded. Consequently, the Radial Basis Function (RBF) algorithm was employed to predict the dam's settlement. Satellite imagery was utilized for monitoring and controlling the dam's settlement, and a 3D PLAXIS model was used to review and evaluate the dam's performance under various reservoir conditions during different seasons, including static and dynamic states. In this study, several comprehensive phases were conducted to ensure the reliability and validity of the proposed protocol. According to the analysis results, the action plan was recognized as the central element of the EWP. Furthermore, the study highlighted that the steps of observing, planning, decision-making, and acting are essential prerequisites for the proposed protocol. By integrating satellite monitoring, numerical modeling, radial basis function algorithms, and geodetic surveying of micro-geodetic points and the dam crest alignment, this study presents an innovative and reliable protocol for monitoring the Shiadah earth dam. This approach can play a significant role in enhancing safety and reducing the risk of dam failure. Moreover, the method is applicable to all earth and concrete dams across the country. The assessment results indicate that the dam is currently at alert level 2 (caution status).

Keywords

Early Warning Protocol (EWP)

monitoring

predicting settlement

the Radial Basis Function (RBF) algorithm

Shiadeh Earth Dam

instrumentation

Subjects

Geotechnical Engineering

[1] Nobahar M, Khan MS, Alzeghoul OE, Graham G, Young K. Condition Assessment of a HWS Using Field Instrumentation and Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI). In Geo-Congress 2022, pp. 102-112.

[2] Nobahar M, Khan MS, Ivoke J. Combined effect of rainfall and shear strength on the stability of highway embankments made of Yazoo clay in Mississippi. Geotechnical and Geological Engineering, 2020, 38(3), 2787-2802.

[3] Nobahar M, Khan MS, Salunke R, Gardner A, Chia KH. Moisture Variation Monitoring of Failed and Not-Failed Highway Slope through Resistivity Imaging in Mississippi. In Geo Congress 2022, pp. 72-81.

[4] Nobahar M, Salunke R, Alzeghoul OE, Khan MS, Amini F. Mapping of Slope Failures on Highway Embankments using Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI), Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), and Finite Element Method (FEM) Numerical Modeling for Forensic Analysis, Transportation Geotechnics, Volume 40, 2023, 100949, ISSN 2214-3912.

[5] Nobahar M, Salunke R, Khan MS, Amini F. Development of Soil Moisture Content and Soil Matric Suction Model Based on Field Instrumentation and Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI) for Highway Slopes Constructed on High Expansive Clay Soil. Geotechnics, 2022, 2(3), 569 671-705.

[6] Nobahar M. An Early Warning Protocol Against Highway Slopes Failure On Expansive Soil." Jackson State University, Mississippi, USA, 2022.

[7] Khan MS, Amini F, Nobahar M. Performance Evaluation of Highway Slopes on Yazoo Clay. Mississippi. Dept. of Transportation, 2020.

[8] Ivoke John, Unsaturated Hydraulic Conductivity Variation of Expansive Yazoo Clay with Wet- Dry Cycles. (2021) https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981211011994

[9] Kandalai S, John NJ, Patel A. Effects of Climate Change on Geotechnical Infrastructures— state of the art. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2023 Jan 5:1-27.

[10] Vahedifard F, Adaptation strategies for levees under a changing climate.2022

[11] Bračko T, Žlender B, Jelušič P. Implementation of Climate Change Effects on Slop Stability Analysis. Applied Sciences. 2022 Aug 16;12(16):8171.

[12] Allard RF. Climate change adaptation: Infrastructure and extreme weather. Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure. 2021:105-16.500

[13] Fant C, Jacobs JM, Chinowsky P, Sweet W, Weiss N, Sias JE, Martinich J, Neumann JE. Mere nuisance or growing threat? The physical and economic impact of high tide flooding on US road networks. Journal of infrastructure systems. 2021 Dec 1;27(4):04021044.

[14] Karagiannis GM, Cardarilli M, Turksezer ZI, Spinoni J, Mentaschi L, Feyen L, Krausmann E. Climate change and critical infrastructure–storms. European Union: Luxembourg. 2019

[15] Pk S, Bashir R, Beddoe R. Effect of climate change on earthen embankments in Southern Ontario, Canada. Environmental Geotechnics. 2018 Dec 18;8(2):148-69.

[16] Xu Y, Su C, Huang Z, Yang C, Yang Y. Research on the protection of expansive soil slopes under heavy rainfall by anchor-reinforced vegetation systems. Geotextiles and Geomembranes. 2022 Dec 1;50(6):1147-58.

[17] Liang C, Wu Z, Liu X, Xiong Z, Li T. Analysis of shallow landslide mechanism of expansive soil slope under rainfall: a case study. Arabian Journal of Geosciences. 2021 Apr;14:1- 531 1.

[18] Nobahar M, Khan MS, Ivoke J, Amini F. Impact of rainfall variation on slope made of expansive Yazoo clay soil in Mississippi." Transportation Infrastructure Geotechnology, 2019, 6(4), 318-336.

[19] Nobahar M, Khan MS. Prediction of Matric Suction of Highway Slopes Using Autoregression Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model. In Geo-Extreme 2021, pp. 40-50.

[20] Khan MS, Ivoke J, Nobahar M, Amini F. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based Soil Temperature model of Highly Plastic Clay. Geomechanics and Geoengineering, 2022, 17(4), 1230-1246

[21] Abrams TG, Wright SG. A survey of earth slope failures and remedial measures in Texas.4971972 Dec

[22] Wright SG. Evaluation of soil shear strengths for slope and retaining wall stability analyses with emphasis on high plasticity clays. Project No. 5-1874. 2005 Aug;1.

[23] Lee Jr LT. State Study 151 and 236: Yazoo Clay Investigation, 2012, No. FHWA/MS- DOT-RD-11-236.

[24] Nelson J, Miller DJ. Expansive soils: problems and practice in foundation and pavement engineering. John Wiley & Sons, 1997.

[25] Kongai F, Impact of Pit latrines on Groundwater Quality: A comparative study of boreholes and protected springs in Mpigi Town Council, Uganda,2023

[26] Wanare R, Iyer KK, Jayanthi P. Recent advances in early warning systems for landslide forecasting. Geohazard Mitigation: Select Proceedings of VCDRR 2021. 2022:249-60.

[27] Fawzy S, Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review.2020

[28] Petley D. Global patterns of loss of life from landslides. 2012

[29] Tavakoli MA,Fathipour H, Payan M. Seismic bearing capacity of shallow foundations subjected to inclined and eccentric loading using modified pseudo-dynamic method. Transportation Geotechnics. Volume 40, May 2023, 100979.

[30] Fathipour H, Siahmarzgi AH, Payan M. Evaluation of the active and passive pseudo-dynamic earth pressures using finite element limit analysis and second-order cone programming.Volume 41, pages 1921–1936, (2023).

[31] Fathipour H, Javankhoshdel S, Payan M. Probabilistic Assessment of Seismic Bearing Capacity of Strip Footings Seated on Heterogeneous Slopes Using Finite Element Limit Analysis (FELA) and Response Surface Method (RSM). TMIC 2022, AHE 13, pp. 199–209, 2023.

[32] Payan M , Asadi p, Jamaldar AH. Artificial intelligence-based predictive models for shear wave velocity of soils: A comprehensive review. Accepted 5 May 2025.[33] Fatehi M, Hosseinpour I, Payan M .Deterministic Seismic Stability Analysis of Reinforced Slopes using Pseudo‑Static Approach. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering. Accepted: 3 September 2022

[34] Kjekstad O, Highland L. Economic and social impacts of landslides. In Landslides–disaster risk reduction. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2009, pp. 573-587.

[35] The Mazandaran Regional Water Company Control and Stability Report, (1999-2024)

[36] G. E. Fasshauer, Meshfree Approximation Methods with MATLAB, Vol. 6, World Scientific Publishing Co., Inc., River Edge, NJ, USA, 2007.

[37] Massonnet, D., Feigl, K.L. (1998). Radar interferometry and its application to changes in the Earth's surface. Reviews of Geophysics, 36(4): 441-500. https://doi.org/10.1029/97RG03139

[38] Simons, M., Rosen, P.A. (2007). Interferometric synthetic aperture radar geodesy. Geodesy, 3: 391-446. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-044452748-6.00059-6

[39] Goudarzi, M. A.: Detection and measurement of land deformations caused by seismic events using InSAR, Sub-pixel correlation, and Inversion techniques, p. 7, https://webapps.itc.utwente.nl/librarywww/papers_2010/msc/gem/goudarzi.pdf, (last access: 8 May 2022), 2010.

[40] Kim, J. W.: Applications of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)/SAR Interferometry (InSAR) for Monitoring of Wetland Water Level and Land Subsidence, Ohio State Univ., 1–111, https://core. ac.uk/download/pdf/159596183.pdf (last access: 8 May 2022), 2013.

[41]Netzband, M., Stefanov, W. L., and Redman, C.: Applied remote sensing for urban planning, governance and sustainability, Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68009-3, 2007.

[42] Mondini, A.C., Santangelo, M., Rocchetti, M., Rossetto, E., Manconi, A., Monserrat, O. (2019) Sentinel-1 SAR amplitude imagery for rapid landslide detection. Remote Sensing, 11(7): 760. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11070760

[43] Ommati, M. (2022). FaraDars. www.Faradars.org

[44] The Mazandaran Regional Water Company Control and Stability Report, (1999-2024)

[45] Report of the Shiadeh Dam Project, Regional Water Company of Mazandaran Province, (1998).

[46] Anisheh, S. R. Sarifipour. M. Optimization of the effective width of the foundation of a homogeneous earth dam under earthquake using the IWO algorithm. Internatıonal Journal of Natural and Engineering Sciences E-ISSN: 2146-0086 18 (2): 77-91, 2024.

[47] Anisheh, S. R. Anisheh S. M. Application of Finite Difference Method and PSO Algorithm in Seismic Analysis of Narmab Earth Dam. International Journal of Computer Applications (0975 – 8887) Volume 54– No.1, September 2012.

[48] Anisheh, S. R., Anisheh, S. A., & Anisheh, S. H. Seismic analysis of Narmab earth dam and optimization of its parameters using cuckoo. Internatıonal Journal of Natural and Engineering Sciences. E-ISSN: 2146-0086 13 (2): 53-58, 2019

[49] Farrokhi, F., Rasouli, R., Anisheh, S.R . Seismic Analysis of Homogeneous Earth Dam and Optimization of Its Parameters Using Pso. Internatıonal Journal of Natural and Engineering Sciences E-ISSN: 2146-0086 12 (1): 42-48, 2018.

[50] Report of the Shiadeh Dam Project, Khazar Ab Consulting in 1998.